I do like my LLM. Actually, I love it, and it’s insanely useful to me and my work. I also believe that there is a lot of potential in the further development and deployment of AI. But SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son going on the record to say that the AI buildout will require $5 trillion per year by 2040 and that AI revenue will hit 20% of global GDP by 2040 is just a bit too much for me…
“Every year $5 trillion, or 800 trillion yen, you might think that’s a lie, but I am confident that’s what it will cost,” Son said at SoftBank’s annual corporate conference in Tokyo. […] “The business model will be viable because by 2040, if AI revenue makes up 20% of global GDP, spending 800 trillion yen a year is a rounding error,” Son said.
The important bit here is this:
He did not say how he came up with the $5 trillion number or the proportion of global GDP he expects AI will make up.
Yep. Precisely. And just to put this all in perspective: Global GDP today is ~$117 trillion. 20% of that is ~$23T – larger than China’s entire economy ($19.4T) and about three-quarters the size of the US ($30.62T). All of worldwide manufacturing is about 15% of global GDP (and the single largest sector today).
