A lot of excitement exists around the use of tailored AI models to do things such as drug discovery and the development of new materials. It turns out that Ethan Mollick’s Jagged Frontier of the use and application of AI applies here too. As Matt Clancy points out in his deep dive "Prediction Technologies and Innovation”:
We can imagine Kim (2023)’s technology is like a lonely streetlight, only illuminating protein structures that are near to others we already know, while Toner-Rodgers’ technology is a gigantic set of floodlights that illuminate a whole field.
In summary, the streetlight effect leads to a concentration of research efforts on well-trodden paths, while the floodlight effect can promote exploration of more novel and diverse areas. Thus, the former leads to sustaining innovation (at best), while the latter can lead to breakthrough innovation.
